By Catarina Saraiva
Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) — Coffee futures rose to a 15-month high on speculation that output declines in Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s largest growers, will support higher prices.
Global coffee production may fall to 123 million bags in the current season, from 128 million bags a year earlier, the International Coffee Organization said last week. Output in Brazil, the biggest supplier, will drop 15 percent to 39 million bags, the group said. The South American nation plans to buy beans from local farmers to support prices and boost incomes.
“The fundamentals for coffee are pretty strong,” said Jimmy Tintle, a Transworld Futures analyst in Tampa, Florida. “The Brazilian government buying back coffee,” as well as falling output in Vietnam, are supporting gains, he said.
Arabica-coffee futures for March delivery rose 1.35 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $1.4725 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York and are up 31 percent this year. Earlier, the most-active contract reached $1.494, the highest price since Aug. 29, 2008.
This season’s harvest in Vietnam may yield 20 percent fewer beans than a year earlier after storms damaged crops, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association said last week. Luong Van Tu, the group’s chairman, said the country’s output may fall to 17.5 million bags. Each bag weighs 60 kilograms, or 132 pounds.
In Brazil, the Agriculture Ministry said on Dec. 4 that it plans to purchase 10 million bags of coffee before July to support prices and help farmers. Last July, the government agreed to buy 1 million bags through an auction.
World consumption may increase to about 132 million bags in 2009, the international producer group said, up from an estimated 130 million bags in 2008.
Coffee prices have also been supported by colder weather, which may spur demand, Transworld’s Tintle said. The five days through Dec. 11 were 26 percent colder than average in much of the U.S., said Matt Rogers, the president of the Commodity Weather Group in Bethesda, Maryland.
“If we start having a deep freeze, roasters will have to roast more beans,” Tintle said.
This really increases my food costs.